Is a trend a friend?

The premier league returns this weekend after last weekends round of shock results.  Unexpected defeats for both Manchester clubs were the headline grabbing results but we can't forget to mention Cardiff also grabbing a result at Fulham.  This weekend I'm looking into the perceived theory that trends are the friend of punters.

Manchester City v Everton

The early kick sees an out of sorts Man City host the only unbeaten team left in the premier league Everton.  Both these teams have scored and scored regularly this season but City have been their usual impressive selves at home. City must look to bounce back after their disappointing efforts recently but a draw would also be taken gladly by Everton.  Looking at trends for this match Man City have seen three or more goals in two of their three home matches.  This is also backed up by Everton seeing three or more goals scored in two of their three away matches.

GOALS


Cardiff City v Newcastle United

Cardiff have made a good start to their first premier league season with results now both at home and away.  Newcastle masked another poor first half display with a good effort in the second half against Everton.  In truth there are major problems both on and off field at Newcastle and I don't see either being rectified quickly.  Cardiff have proved strong at home and an out of form Newcastle must be travelling low in confidence and expectation.  The stand out trend between these two teams is there record for second half goals.  Two of the three matches at Cardiff and half of Newcastle away matches this season have seen most goals come in the second half.

SECOND HALF GOALS


Fulham v Stoke

Both of these two disappointed me last week end with both performance and results.  Stoke impressed at Arsenal by never got started at home against Norwich last week whilst Fulham looked very poor at times against Cardiff.  Martin Jol is under pressure and already there are doubts how much longer he will be in charge at the Cottage.  The strongest trend I can find between these two teams is for less than three goals to be scored.  It landed in two out of three Stoke away games and half of Fulham home matches this season.

UNDERS


Hull City v Aston Villa

This is a battle of two mid table teams with impressive records in relevant matches.  Villa boast two away wins at present whilst Hull are unbeaten at home.  One blow for Villa will be the loss of Benteke and they were not as impressive at Norwich recently when he went off.  These are the types of matches that Steve Bruce knows he needs to collect points from if he is to avoid a relegation battle.  Whilst Paul Lambert must look at these types of matches as his best chance to boost his teams chances of a higher league finish.  I'm following the trend for Villa to avoid defeat at Hull and maybe pinch a result.

VILLA / DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE


Liverpool v Crystal Palace

After returning to winning ways last week these are the types of matches that Liverpool have stumbled with.  Palace will get numbers behind the ball and deny Liverpool space, Liverpool have struggled at times to break down teams at Anfield and today is another one of these tests.  Palace have looked good at times but have also lacked quality at vital moments to force results.  Their defensive organisation will be majorly tested today and they could face long period without the ball.  The most common trend in this match is for a clean sheet for the home team.  Liverpool have only conceded once at home so far this season whilst Palace have failed to scored in half of their away matches.

HOME CLEAN SHEET


Sunderland v Manchester United

Few would of predicted this match at the start of the season being billed as a match between two strugglers.  The media are loving their chance to attack David Moyes and this is another awkward match for them after travelling to the Ukraine in midweek.  Sunderland showed only a mild improvement last week against Liverpool whilst United lacked tempo once more against West Brom.  The home support will be really up for this match but United have a great record against Sunderland at the stadium of light.  The most obvious trend for both Sunderland home and Manchester United away matches is goals and that's what I'm siding with again.

GOALS


Thanks for reading and good luck!

Teacher & Pupil

 

 

Last week proved to be another interesting week in the premier league; it returned with goals in matches something that has been desperately missing in early weekends so far.  With all bar two matches seeing two or more goals it showed a dramatic increase in previous weeks and this must surely have offered more entertainment for the paying public.  This weekend throws up some real mouth watering fixtures between some of the premier leagues big clubs.

 

TOTTENHAM v CHELSEA

What a game to start the weekend, a massive London derby and a battle between the teacher and the pupil.  The fact is that the teacher and the pupil no longer are friends and both have admitted to this publicly in the national media.  Tottenham have been impressive this season but have failed to deliver the goals much was expected from the fresh attacking front three.  Chelsea have been indifferent to say the least but also have ground out results.  I would like to suggest this game should contain goals but I can’t help but think Mr Mourinho will gladly take a point and could well park the bus. So far only one of Tottenham’s league matches this season has seen more than one goal scored, this then coupled with Chelsea having kept a clean sheet in half of their matches makes me decide this going to be a tight affair.  It will be a close call between a home win or a draw.  Either way I wouldn’t be expected a glut of goals.

 

ASTON VILLA v MAN CITY

After last weeks result against Manchester United many would expect City to push on a take the points at Villa Park.  But in truth it is away form that is going to shape the success of their season.  So far they have failed to deliver on their travels and that is a slight concern.  Their opponents this week Villa were dealt a major blow in the victory at Norwich last week with the injury to Benteke.  Prior to his injury Villa looked very inventive in attack and created multiple chances.  Once he departed they did grab the winning goal but lacked a real threat in the box.  Villa are more comfortable away from home as they like to play on the counter attack and if you look at their recent home form this backs up opinion.  They will quite like facing this City team who will dominate possession but sadly I think minus Benteke they could well lack a threat to test the City back line.  This coupled with the fact they have lost their last two at home and conceded in every game except last week I fancy City to keep their form going.

 

FULHAM v CARDIFF

Fulham will be slightly lifted going into this match after beating Everton in the cup in midweek.  Looking at them Fulham have showed a real mixed bag of form so far this season.  Impressive results at times but sadly then let down but dropped points the following week.  My early fears for them this season regarding to many luxury players have reseeded with the addition of Scott Parker in midfield.  And last weeks display at Stamford Bridge was good and they should of taken then lead in the match but for Darren Bents miss.  Their opponents this week Cardiff will have taken some delight from their start to the season with just their second defeat coming last week against Tottenham.  They have had a difficult opening set of fixtures but have survived the test will now be their ability to get results against teams in the lower section of the table.  Looking at these results I have still a fear of their goal scoring ability and if they carry out lacking goals it will only add more pressure onto their defence to perform.  This could well be another close match up with Cardiff looking to keep the game tight.  Much will depend on the fitness of Berbatov and if he is available I believe Fulham could win if not I will side with the draw.

 

HULL CITY v WEST HAM UNITED

Not the most eye catching fixture of the weekend between two teams that have at times struggled for goals but have been mildly impressive in defence.  Hull gained a surprised victory at St. James Park last week and more surprisingly managed to score three goals in the process.  This was the only game of theirs this season that has seen more than two goals scored.  West Ham come into the match after losing at home to the only undefeated team in the league Everton.  West Ham have struggled for goals at times and if the are to seriously mount a challenge for a top half finish they must rectify the issue.  Very similarly to the home side West Ham have only seen more than two goals in a match twice this season so I can’t see beyond a tight low scoring match but believe West Ham could take a point but can’t see them achieving much beyond this. 

 

MAN UTD v WEST BROM

David Moyes must have been a relieved man on Wednesday night as his team beat Liverpool in the Capital One cup at Old Trafford.  Even at this early stage the daggers are being drawn by the media and certain sections of his own fan base.  In truth he has not helped himself with comments to the media saying that they need to recruit more players in January when less than two weeks ago he stated he was happy with their summer transfer activity.  I can’t see West Brom causing an upset this Saturday as they have been poor so far this season.  Last weeks victory was as much to do with Sunderland being in free fall as West Brom finding form.  I still believe West Brom are lacking a major goal threat and this is adding pressure onto their defence.  A home win by maybe a couple of goals and a clean sheet.

 

SOUTHAMPTON v CRYSTAL PALACE

Southampton gained one of the most impressive results last weeks winning at Anfield.  In truth they have not delivered the results many would of expected after their summer signings.  At Anfield they pressed Liverpool high up the field and forced errors and their strong defence then enabled them to grab a goal and take all three points.  In truth defensively they have looked good so far this season but at home they are struggling for goals.  Looking at the visitors I can’t help but get the feeling from Ian Holloway he feels it is going to be a long hard and I’m hoping he is managing to put a more positive attitude to the players than in the media.  Palace are going to get men behind the ball here and it will be another test to see if the Saints can break them down.  Looking at their record Southampton have only lost one of their last five at home but sadly have drawn all the rest. I’m siding with Southampton to take the points but it could well be another close affair. 

 

SWANSEA v ARSENAL

A football match for the purists, two teams that base their games completely on passing, movement and possession.  Both have been in good form recently although Swansea did suffer a shock defeat away to Birmingham in the cup this week.   After a slow start to the domestic league Swansea have started to find form and several of their new signings begin to gel.  Arsenal who many wrote off after the first game of the season have bounced back in style and Arsene Wenger must be delighted with the major influence Mesut Ozil is having on the team.  They have looked exciting in attack and it will be exciting to see them once Santi Cazorla is back to fitness.  In truth I thought Arsenal would do reasonably well but it will be their results against the top six that will determine how successful.  Last year they enjoyed success on their trips to the Liberty stadium and I feel they can take something.  Especially when you consider Swansea have not won any of their last five home matches and Arsenal have won all of their last five away.  I believe Arsenal will take something from the game but it will be close between a win or a draw.

 

STOKE v NORWICH

The early kick off between Stoke and Norwich is not a match that catches the eye.  Stoke have gained some impressive results early this season and even in defeat at the Emirates last week impressed at times.  In stark contrast Norwich have not delivered and Chris Hughton is a manager under pressure.  Against Aston Villa last week they failed to create too many clear cut chances and whilst playing some attractive football never managed to assert real pressure.  If I could label one fault at this Norwich team it would be they attempted to play football in the wrong areas of the pitch.  To many times balls were put into the midfield when they were under pressure and their players were not technically good enough to cope.  Looking at Stoke many have commented on their change of style but in truth it has not altered dramatically. They do attempt to play a more passing style but only in the attacking third.  I can’t see beyond Stoke taking something from this game Norwich maybe could stifle the Stoke attacking threat so a low scoring affair in my book.  Backed up with the fact that Norwich have not scored in over half of their games this season and boast only one victory as well.

 

SUNDERLAND v LIVERPOOL

 

The death of the dictator is how some have branded the sacking of Mr Di Canio.  In my opinion methods that he used in the lower leagues of English football sadly do not work in the premier league.  Threatening players and ostracised them in lower levels when they do not earn inflated salaries and are on short term contracts can create results.  But at the top level where players are millionaires and have far more control over clubs these tactics fail.  Once he lost the squad the results were only going to head in one direction.  This weekend they have Kevin Ball in temporary charge and Liverpool might be slightly fearing the new manager effect.  Time has proven how teams seem to improve with a change of manager, whether it is down to fear over their security within the team of just looking to impress the new manager.  Sadly for Liverpool they haven’t been at the best over the last fortnight either after an impressive start to the season.  A draw and two defeats has cast a grey cloud over Anfield but the return of Luis Suarez will be a major bonus.  They controlled large amounts of their match at Old Trafford but failed to convert chances and it is this conversion rate that might be of concern.  This is a difficult match to call as Sunderland will be some what of an unknown package and have not won in any of their last five at home, if Liverpool perform they should get a result but again I would suggest a draw is highly likely.

 

EVERTON v NEWCASTLE

The last game of the weekend will see Everton host Newcastle on Monday night.  Roberto Martinez has gained some impressive results so far this season, must noticeably his last two in wins against Chelsea and away to West Ham.  The team has adapted to his method of play quickly and seem to be converting more of their chances in front of goal.  I for one doubted how successful he would be succeeding from David Moyes but at present he seems to be achieving.  In stark contrast Newcastle have been poor this season with only brief glimpses of optimism for their fans.  They have struggled in front of goal and also in defence and this is not a good combination.  Cisse did break his goal drought in midweek and that will be some small crumb of comfort.  In truth the managerial chaos was always going to have an impact of the team, whether it be through lack of transfer activity or just offering players an excuse for poor performances.  Everton are unbeaten in their last five at home whilst Newcastle boast a strong record of just one defeat in five away.  I still cannot see Newcastle taking anything from their trip to the Merseyside except more discontent.

Where have the goals gone?

Last week the blog tested my predictive model for the first time, it proved to be very hit & miss.  This maybe related to the model being based on historical data and the premier league so far this season has seen far more low scoring matches than in previous years.  Hopefully the premier league now will return to its high tempo goal scoring self.

NORWICH v ASTON VILLA

The early kick off shows two teams with indifferent form in the league so far, both have had positive and negative results.  These two teams have young explosive attacking options and attempt to play in a passing style.  Last season Norwich struggled for goals and there has been a mild improvement in this area. Whilst Villa struggled in defence and they are still sadly leaking goals again this season. Looking at this match these teams have seen three or more goals scored in approx 90% of their recent matches. So I’m siding with goals in this match the actual match outcome is very close maybe slightly favouring Norwich.

LIVERPOOL v SOUTHAMPTON

Liverpool dropped points for the first time this season on Monday against Swansea and they will be looking to take all three points at home against a Southampton team struggling to find the net so far this season.  Southampton have struggled for goals but have been relatively resilient in defence.  Again this is another match between to teams that pass and control the ball and could be a match that starts very slowly. This match could be far closer than anticipated with both teams recent respective matches seeing less than three goals scored.  I will be siding with a low scoring home win but strangely a draw wouldn’t overly surprise me.

NEWCASTLE v HULL

Newcastle will hope their victory at Villa Park last week will kick start their season.  In truth they have struggled at both ends of the pitch until last weekend.  They now face a Hull team that have managed to grind their way to a few early season points.  Last week they drew against Cardiff in a match they would have desperately wanted to take three points from.  This match could well be a tight nervy affair, but with last weeks result in mind I will side with Newcastle to gain a narrow victory.

WEST BROM v SUNDERLAND

Last weekend West Brom came back from the dead with an injury time goal to take a share of the points at Craven Cottage.  West Brom have struggled so far this season and find themselves in the wrong end of the league table.  However this weekend they face a team that are in real decline.  Sunderland have been poor so far this season and that coupled with decisions not going their way find themselves and Mr Di Canio under pressure.  West Brom are without a victory in their last five home matches whilst Sunderland have only one victory in their last five on the road.  This might not be the most pretty match over the weekend and both teams lack confidence in attack.  How this game pans out will depend mainly on the timing of the first goal, I’m siding with West Brom to get the result and relieve some pressure on Steve Clarke.

WEST HAM v EVERTON

West Ham gained a point at Southampton thanks mainly down to their goalkeeper who produced three great saves.  West Ham since the turn of the year have showed a good defensive record especially away from home.  In truth they have needed this improvement because they are still struggling to score goals.  The ongoing injury to Andy Carroll must be a major concern for big Sam.  Everton gained a vital three points at home against Chelsea.  In truth Chelsea dominated the match especially in the second half but did not create to many clear cut chances.  Everton have been impressive at times but have failed to convert their chances.  Everton are without a win in their last five away matches whilst West Ham have only lost once in their last five at home.  I’m siding with West Ham to take something from the match in what will be a very close contest.

CHELSEA v FULHAM

The late kick off is a classic London derby between arch rivals Chelsea and Fulham.  Jose Mourinho will have been bitterly disappointed to come away from Merseyside last week without a point.  With that in mind taking all three points in this match is even more vital.  Fulham have been more impressive in attack this year but have shown a major defensive weakness.  I still believe they lack players with a real work ethic in the centre of midfield.  After their poor result in midweek then Jose will need to take the points in this one.  Strangely the head to head shows the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge have been a draw.  But I’m siding with the home side to take the points and also a high probability of goals.

ARSENAL v STOKE

Arsenal have turned in some impressive displays so far this season and they now face a Stoke team coming off the back of a home draw against Manchester City.  Arsenal with the addition of Ozil looked very dangerous in attack and that coupled with their defence which improved dramatically through last season will be feeling confident of pushing the title favourites closer this season.  Stoke impressed against Manchester City and if they had taken their chances could well of taken all three points.  In truth Stoke have gone about their business quietly and have achieved a good start to the season.  Stoke always boasted a good defence and if Mark Hughes can improve their goal scoring ability could well achieve a successful league postion.  Stoke have a strong recent away record and a good defensive record as well.  But they face a Arsenal team full of confidence and playing well, I cannot see beyond a home victory and a few goals for the home side as well.

CRYSTAL PALACE v SWANSEA

Palace lost last weekend at Old Trafford but in truth it did not turn out to be the mauling some had anticipated.  They showed good defensive organisation and solidity against a few strong Manchester United attack.  Swansea have now started to find their form in the premier league.  After a victory at the Hawthorns and a draw at home against Liverpool they then backed this up with a victory in Valencia.  There are some promising signs coming from their attacking partnership of Michu and Bony as well.  Much will depend how heavily Swansea rotate after the heavy schedule from last week.  Even with this in mind I still believe Swansea can come away from London with something but I believe they may have to accept a draw.

CARDIFF v TOTTENHAM

Cardiff claimed another point last weekend and appear to be grinding out results so far this season.  Their home record has been excellent and that is what I suggested would need to happen if they are to survive.  They face a Tottenham team that has just started to gel and find impress.  The added benefit of real strength in depth gives Tottenham the opportunity to rotate their team and offer opponents various differing challenges.  Tottenham have a strong away record and a record for goals on their travels as well.  Despite their recent defeat in the derby match I believe Tottenham will have to much attacking power for Cardiff.  I’m opting for an away win and a few goals as well.

MAN CITY v MAN UTD

The first Manchester derby of the year and the first for both of these managers.  This fixture seems to have increased intensity over the last fews seasons.  I’m sure this match will be no different with both managers desperately for both the points and local bragging rights.  Both teams had success in Europe this week and will feel confident going into the match.  City have been their usual dominating selves at home but it is the away record that has cause for concern.  Whilst United have have failed to deliver in their matches against top drawer opposition so far.  They appear to lack tempo and this slow approach play is making it easy for teams to filter back and stifle their threats.  Man City have had a outstanding record at home over recent seasons and I struggle to see United taking all three points. In fact if you look at their last five away from home there is just the one victory.  The most common result is a draw but I do believe they will have to play well to gain the draw.  Overall I’m siding with a home victory and also a high chance of both teams finding the net. 

Thanks for reading and good luck punters !!

What does a computer know??

The premier league returns this weekend after the international break, and this week I have approached the blog in a different way.  I have been experimenting with a predictive model and I have decided to give the model a test run and see how successful it will be.  Some of the suggestions go against my own personal opinion but I'm giving the model its chance.

MAN UTD v CRYSTAL PALACE

The model clearly indicates a home victory and three or more goals.

ASTON VILLA v NEWCASTLE

A close match with little between these teams but slightly siding with the home team.  Also the indications are for under three goals to be scored which I would argue with but I backing the model this week.

FULHAM v WEST BROM

For the match at Craven Cottage the model predicts a home victory and a minimum of two goals scored.

HULL v CARDIFF

The model suggests a minimum of two goals in this match with the match result leaning towards a draw.

STOKE v MAN CITY

At the Britannia the model predicts an away victory and also siding towards less than three goals scored.

SUNDERLAND v ARSENAL

The good news for Arsene Wenger is that my prediction model suggests Arsenal will come away from the Stadium of Light with something.  Also suggestions are for less than three goals to be scored.

TOTTENHAM v NORWICH

The model suggests a home victory with a minimum of two goals scored.

EVERTON v CHELSEA

This is suggested to be a close contest slightly favouring Chelsea with a clearer indication of goals to be scored.

SOUTHAMPTON v WEST HAM

At St.Marys the indications are for a home victory but less than three goals to be scored.

SWANSEA v LIVERPOOL

The draw is the favoured result in the Monday night game, but also the indications are for goals to be scored as well.


Lets see if a computer knows anything about football !!!

Early doors....

 

 

 

 

After a pretty successful first week of the new season for the blog we now head into this weekend.  Looking back at last weeks fixtures a few things became obvious even at such an early stage.  Firstly despite a change of management the Stoke style of play has not altered significantly and also Liverpool still struggled to deal with set pieces.  Next both Arsenal and Aston Villa showed they again will both score and concede on a regular basis this season.  Norwich backed my assumption that they will pose more of a goal threat this season after their summer signings.  Everton have embraced the Roberto Martinez philosophy and should offer plenty of goals through the year.  Sunderland proved against Fulham that despite an influx of players they could well still struggle for goals but Fulham backed my opinion they could well be looking for a top ten finish.  Southampton showed that they are a team to be contended with this season after winning at the Hawthorns.  West Brom lacked a cutting edge and Steve Clarke must be looking to add options to his attack.  West Ham showed why I believed they will be a tough opposition this season whilst Cardiff as I suggested could well find goals hard to come by.  The late kick off showed that Swansea looked bright by struggled for a cutting edge against Manchester United.  United looked strong and grew into the game with their goals.  Again I believe they will do well this season but still suggest third might be where they finish.   On Sunday both of the new teams Crystal Palace & Hull backed early assumptions that they could struggle for goals whilst Tottenham managed to grind out their result.  Chelsea started strong and showed they will be serious contenders for the title this season.  The final game of the week showed Manchester City appearing to be back to more like their title winning best.  They showed good tempo and pressed Newcastle high up the field.  Fernandinho was impressive with his reading of the game and pressing of the Newcastle midfield.  Newcastle showed little in the match and unless they can add some numbers and most importantly some character to their team they will struggle.

 

FULHAM v ARSENAL

After a difficult start to the season losing at home to Aston Villa a win in midweek has lifted the mood at the Emirates.  This weekend they travel to face a confident Fulham team at Craven Cottage.  Fulham ground out a win away to Sunderland something they have struggled to achieve away from home in previous seasons.  Martin Jol has carried out some good business this summer and I believe they will test Arsenal this weekend.  Looking at the match historically two of the last three matches have seen three goals scored.  But looking at recent form Fulham have won just one of their last five at home.  In comparison Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five away matches and will feel confident of gaining a result.  I believe Arsenal will get a result but I believe it may well be a goal scoring draw.

EVERTON v WEST BROM

Both of these two teams will have felt they could have gained more from their first matches of the season.  Everton showed exactly what I anticipated from them this season against Norwich. They maintained a high level of possession and created several chances.  West Brom looked to lack a cutting edge which was surprising with Anelka in attack and Steve Clarke is now close to signing Scott Sinclair to add width to his team.  Looking at the historical record Everton have won all of the last three meetings and all have seen two or more goals scored.  Comparing the teams recent form Everton have won all of their last five home matches whilst West Brom have lost three of their last five away.  I will be siding with a few goals and a home win in this match.

 

HULL v NORWICH

 

Hull as expected struggled at Chelsea but they will not be the only team this season.  Whilst Norwich gained an impressive draw against Everton and showed more of an attacking edge.  Recent history in these matches points towards goals being scored but I believe Hull will try and keep this game tight.  Hull struggled towards the end of last season at home with just one win in their last five.  In these five only two of the matches saw two or more goals scored.  Looking at Norwich they have lost four of their last five away matches.  Norwich have a lot of pace and could well be dangerous on the counter attack this season.  Even at this early stage of the season Steve Bruce will look at this match and believe he must look for three points.  Sadly for him I believe Norwich will avoid defeat.

NEWCASTLE v WEST HAM

 

Both of these teams started the season as they ended last year.  Sadly for Newcastle that meant with poor defending and lacking a cutting edge in attack.   For West Ham they confirmed my opinion they will be tough opponents this season.  They have only lost once in their last three trips to Newcastle and will be buoyed by last year’s victory.  Sadly Newcastle cannot even look to recent home form for comfort, three defeats in their last five at home means the home support will be nervous.  However if they look at the opponents record on their travels they will see they are without a win in their last five away.  The head to head shows this match has averaged two or more goals scored and I believe both teams could well find the net again this weekend.  I’m opting for West Ham to take something at St.James and more pressure to be put on Alan Pardew.

SOUTHAMPTON v SUNDERLAND

 

Southampton gained an impressive win at the Hawthorns and have since added Osvaldo to their growing list of talent.  They have quietly gone about their business and added quality rather than quantity this summer.  They come into this match with just one defeat in their last five at home and all of these matches have seen two or more goals scored.  Strangely their record at home to Sunderland is poor with just one win in their last three.  Sunderland were left disappointed losing at home to Fulham and once more seemed to struggle in attack.  Their away form has been poor with four defeats in their last five and must feel they face a real tasking taking any points from St.Marys this weekend.  I’m backing the home team to take the points and hopefully a couple of goals as well.

 

STOKE v CRYSTAL PALACE

 

Stoke almost gained an unlikely point from their trip to Anfield but sadly Jon Walters missed another penalty.  There seemed little change in their direct approach but in truth they have been quiet in the market so any change would be unlikely.  They still offered a real threat from set pieces and again that must be the area they will look to test Crystal Palace.  They come into the game with just one win in their last five home matches and Palace have only suffered two defeats in their last five away matches.  Palace seemed well organised against Tottenham and in some ways very unholloway like.  Like most of the newly promoted teams goal scoring is going to be the major concern for them and this match will be a good marker to see how they fair.  I believe Stoke will take the points in this match but it could well be a close low scoring affair.

 

ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL

 

Few would of predicted the start to the season Aston Villa have achieved.  After struggling for vast periods of last year they have really hit the ground running this season with a win at the Emirates and unlucky to be beaten at Stamford Bridge.  Villa have posed a real goal threat for a while but their inability to keep a clean sheet has proved costly.  Once again they have scored and conceded this season and their match against a Liverpool team that also scored regularly on their travels should follow suit.  Villa have suffered two defeats in their last five home matches and all of these matches have seen two or more goals scored.  Whilst Liverpool have won three of their last five away from home.  Also four of these five away matches have seen two or more goals scored.  Liverpool have an impressive record at Villa Park but if they are to gain anything this weekend they must control Benteke.  Last year the Liverpool defence struggled against physical attackers and this is their first challenge this season.  My choice is for this match to be an entertaining goal scoring draw.

CARDIFF v MAN CITY

 

Cardiff as I anticipated struggled against West Ham and struggled to offer a real goal threat.  Sadly they now face a Manchester City team that looked very impressive at home against Newcastle on Monday.  I stated last week I believe Manchester City will be entertaining to watch this season and I was very impressed by the centre midfield pairing.  In truth matches against the top four are not what will decide if Cardiff survives in the premier league.  In their favour is a vocal home support and they will need that if they are to get a result.  Manchester City will travel south in confident mood of taking the three points and will field a similar starting eleven to the Monday night team.  Looking at recent form Cardiff drew three of their last five at home but have kept clean sheets in three of the last five as well.  Looking at Man City they have won three of their last five away from home and have scored at least twice in three out of those five matches.  I’m siding with a win for Man City and hopefully a couple of goals as well.

 

 

TOTTENHAM v SWANSEA

 

Tottenham have spent this week adding even more attacking options to their squad and after gaining three points against Crystal Palace they must be confident looking ahead this season.  Tottenham now boast an exciting attacking line-up with pace and imagination.  Swansea will feel their result last week losing at home to Manchester United did not represent their contribution to the game.  As usual they had good possession and control but lacked a real cutting edge in the match whilst playing Shelvey close to Michu.  In the second half the addition of Bony did help and they must hope he will start on Sunday.  In truth I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr Laudrup started with just one up front and looked to pack the midfield.  Swansea during most of last season were good on the road and had an impressive defensive record.  They will look to contain this Spurs attack and pinch a goal. Looking at these teams in recent head to head matches Tottenham have won all the matches at White Hart Lane but these matches have been low scoring.  Tottenham’s home form shows two wins and two draws in their last five at home whilst Swansea have now lost three of their last five away matches.  But on the positive side they have scored in four of their last five away matches.  I’m siding with a home win and maybe a couple of goals.

 

MANCHESTER UNITED v CHELSEA

The final game of the week is arguably the most exiting game with Jose Mourinho taking his Chelsea team to Old Trafford.  Both managers have had good starts to the season and both will feel confident going into this match.  This is David Moyes first real test in the hot seat against one of his real main title rivals.  He will feel it is important to set a marker in this match and if they can win it will send a clear message to the rest of the league.  Jose will be happy with his teams start but has stated his team must learn to finish teams off when they can.  Chelsea and Jose boast a strong record at Old Trafford and will be confident of taking at least a point.  Also looking at Uniteds recent home record they have lost two of their last five at home.  Chelsea have won three of their last five on the road and four of those five have seen three or more goals.  The signs are positive but I believe Jose will be happy to take a point in this one.  I’m siding with a goal scoring high tempo draw, both manager will be happy to accept that this early in the season.

 

 

Thanks for reading and good luck to everyone!!

Welcome back old friend.

This weekend the premier league returns and so does my match day previews.  Predicting results this early in the campaign can prove to be tricky and also with the transfer window still open some team selections can be effected.

 

LIVERPOOL v STOKE

Liverpool kick off their season in the early kick off at home against Stoke City.  Liverpool have signed several players again this summer and sold several players as well.  Toure, Aspas, Alberto and Mignolet have arrived but Liverpool have lost real experience with the loss of Carragher and Reina. Stoke have been a difficult opponents for Liverpool in recent seasons with Liverpool only winning one of their last three matches at home against them.  Stoke have been quite in the transfer window until now, the only purchases have been Muniesa from Barcelona and Pieters from PSV.  Stoke have had an outstanding defence in recent seasons but last year it started to leak at times.  This then coupled with their goal scoring problems left them embroiled in a relegation dog fight.  This season that is something Mark Hughes must rectify if they are to achieve safety.  Looking at the three games at Anfield only one of these matches saw more than two goals scored.  But we must remember this is a Stoke City in transition.  Looking at both of these teams during pre season they have both been in good form and showed defensive records.  Liverpool will be without Luis Suarez who is suspended but hope to have Daniel Sturridge available.  I will be siding with a Liverpool victory but it could well be a lot closer than some would expect.

 

ARSENAL v ASTON VILLA

Both of these teams finished the last season with promises from their managers that they would invest over the summer and must improve on results.  Strangely we come into the first game of the new season and neither have carried out any major restructuring of their teams.  Arsenal have spent the summer in pursuit of a striker and are still currently looking but they have trimmed the squad wage bill but selling seven first team members.  Whilst the main positive for Villa over the summer has been keeping Benteke.  They have recruited several young players but all are new to the premier league and only time will tell if they succeed.  Both Arsenal and Villa showed improvements in form over the last third of last season but the real test will again will be how they start this campaign.  Looking at the historical record of this fixture all of the last four matches have seen three or more goals.  That then coupled with pre season showing both of these teams have scored and conceded goals I will be siding with a home win and also a good chance for some goals. 

 

NORWICH v EVERTON

 

Norwich have invested heavily this summer in young players with exciting potential, how they perform over the course of a long premier league season could be very interesting.  The trend for young players show they can be inconsistent and this I feel could well be the case with Norwich.  After the money they have spent now securing premier league safety is vital and this will depend heavily on their home form.  Chris Hughton knew much like most punters that Norwich struggled for goals last season and that is the area he has invested mostly in.  The signings of Van Wolfswinkel, Fer & Redmond will definitely add pace and energy to their attack.  The only doubt is they are currently unproven in the premier league.  Their opponents come into the season under the stewardship of Roberto Martinez and he knows he faces a daunting task to improve on David Moyes recent record.  Roberto has added a few new faces with recruits of Kone and Alcaraz from Wigan. Also Deulofeu on loan from Barcelona could well be very interesting and profitable.  This is another fixture with trends of three goals or more in the last three meetings so I’m siding with a draw and a couple of goals in this match.

 

SUNDERLAND v FULHAM

Sunderland have possibly carried out the most transfers in the premier league this summer.  Sadly the majority of these players are unknown to the English league and supporters so how they perform could well be a lottery.  Paulo decided their needed to be changes made as he looks to stamp his mark on this Sunderland team and he has certainly done that.  The list of their signings includes Giaccherini, Ba, Altidore, Mannone, Karlsson, Diakite, Cabral, Roberge, Watmore.  I will certainly expect Sunderland to score more goals this season but their form could well be as volatile as their managers temper.  Fulham have also been busy with several interesting purchases and the expectation of more to come.  Fulham have become an established premier league team and now find themselves in a position of questioning if they wish to push on to the next level.  They have been taken over by Shahid Khan with the promise of investment.  I do not believe it will be reckless spending more of a measured approach in search of value for money.  Martin Jol so far this summer has brought in Adel Taarabt, Stekelenburg, Amorbieta and Derek Boateng and is still reported to be chasing Darren Bent.  The signings of Stekelenburg and Amorbieta interest me most and I will be interested to see how both adapt to the premier league.  If they can adapt they could well prove to be great signings for Fulham.  Strangely Sunderland haven’t beaten Fulham in any of their last three matches at home but I’m opting for goals and a home victory in this match mainly due to Fulham being indifferent in pre season.

 

WEST BROM v SOUTHAMPTON

The Hawthorns in the latest stopping point in the career of Nicolas Anelka and he has been prolific in pre season for the Baggies.  The only other players added by Steve Clarke are Diego Lugano & young Vydra who spent last season with Watford.  In truth West Brom knew they required additions in attack with Lukaku returning to Chelsea from his season long loan.  They will be looking for a similar start to last season which saw them hovering around the top four until November.  Southampton despite being linked with several players have been quite and with just two main recruits being Victor Wanyama and Dejan Lovren.  Southampton enjoyed a successful first season back in the premier league securing safety and gaining some impressive results at home.  They managed to tighten their early season leaking defence and with Lambert & Puncheon adapting well to the top flight the managed to score goals regularly.  I’m torn between a home win and a draw in this match mainly as West Brom have drawn two of their last three at home against Southampton either way I believe West Brom will avoid defeat.

 

WEST HAM v CARDIFF

The owners of West Ham have backed big Sam this summer with the signings of Andy Carroll & Stewart Downing.  Even though neither player achieved success at Liverpool I believe they should do well at West Ham.  West Ham were a tough prospect at home last season and I can see it will only be tougher this season.  This home form will be the back bone of any chance West Ham have of improving on last season final position.  Cardiff face a tough task in their first match in the premier league but they know already they face a tough hard season ahead and having struggled for victories in pre season confidence may be effected.  I have been surprised by the investment shown by their owner this summer.  A current total spend of 28 million on Gary Medel, Steven Caulker, John Brayford and Andrea Cornelius shows a serious intention of avoiding relegation but also would seriously questioned their finances should they go back down.  My worry for Cardiff is that they struggled for goals in the championship last season and this will only be increased in the premier league.  But on the positive side they have a wonderful stadium and vocal support that could be a major advantage.  West Ham have won two of the last three times in this fixture but goals have been at a premium so I’m backing a narrow home win.

 

SWANSEA v MAN UTD

The late kick off sees Manchester United start their new era post Sir Alex Ferguson away to Swansea.  The Liberty stadium has been a difficult venue for many teams in the premier league and I’m sure David Moyes would of wished for a easier first match.  Swansea have used the summer to boost their squad thanks to benefit of playing European football this season.  The additions of Shelvey, Bony, Amat, Pozuelo and Canas will add much needed strength to a small squad.  Swansea also have the benefit of having played competitive matches already this season in the Europa league as well as boasting an unbeaten record in pre season.  Manchester United have spent most of the summer looking to bolster their midfield and have so far been unsuccessful with bids for Fabregas and Modric.  This coupled with the on going Wayne Rooney saga and his absence from the team must have had a negative impact on pre season.  David Moyes will be desperate to add some numbers to his squad after seeing his rivals make several acquisitions.  I siding with a goal scoring draw in this match and I feel both teams will be happy with that result.

 

CRYSTAL PALACE v TOTTENHAM

The London derby is the early kick off on Sunday as Crystal Palace return to the top flight and face a Tottenham team possibly missing Gareth Bale.  Palace crept into the premier league through the play offs and most bookmakers have written them off already.  But in Ian Holloway they have a manager who nearly managed the impossible with Blackpool.  Palace have this week signed Chamakh from Arsenal on a season long deal in a effort to improve their attacking options.  Palace have several young exciting players and if they can adapt quickly they could well upset a few teams this season.  Tottenham have had a mixed summer with some good signings in Paulinho, Soldado, Chadli but face a massive task in holding onto Gareth Bale.  It seems the player has set his mind on leaving for Real Madrid but Daniel Levy will certainly drive a hard bargain.  Losing or retaining Bale could have a massive impact of Tottenhams expectations for this season.  If he is sold they will have limited time to find suitable replacements and will also find the prices will be highly inflated.  Both of these teams have been in reasonable form during pre season and it could well be a hard fought match.  I believe Tottenham will get a result in this match but it may well be the game doesn’t open up until late in the second half.

 

CHELSEA v HULL CITY

 

Sunday is the second coming of the special one to Stamford Bridge, we he be as successful in his second period only time will tell.  But if you look at his track record he must feel confident given the squad and financial backing available he stands a great chance.  Chelsea are my tip for the title this season, only because I believe Jose knows how to get results and has been around the premier league track before.  Experience could prove to be vital this season with his mostly likely rivals having little track record of league success.  Chelsea have been quite in the market with only Schurrle the major addition.  They still have an interest Wayne Rooney but they appear to have hit a dead end in that deal.  Steve Bruce could not of wished for a more daunting first match of the season for his team.  Hull gained promotion last season and much like Cardiff did so whilst struggling to score goals.  Steve has been working on a tight budget this summer and has attempted to resolve their goal problems with purchasing Sagbo and Danny Graham after his unsuccessful period at Sunderland.  In truth this could be a very long season for Hull and the trip to London is just the beginning.  I can’t see beyond a comfortable home win and effective performace from Mr Mourinho’s team.

 

MANCHESTER CITY v NEWCASTLE UNITED

The final match of the weekend will see Manuel Pellegrini make his debut as Manchester City manager.  Few can doubt the style his teams play with or his success on limited budgets in Europe and it is that success that has lead him to Manchester.  This will be the real test of his managerial abilities, he has a squad full of talent and anything other than winning the league will be deemed a failure.  He has made some great signings in Negredo, Navas and Fernandiho to add the the strength already at Eastlands.  I full expect open attacking football from City this season but expect them to be a close second in the league.  Newcastle come into the season after a summer of upheaval, how many times have we said that before.  The implementation of Joe Kinnear as director of football and lack of player arrivals has left the loyal support unhappy.  They also now face the possibility of losing Cabeye with several high profile clubs circling.  Newcastle struggled last season and the losing Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse losing form was one of the major factors.  Sadly they have done little to rectify this over the summer and must feel they could face another long hard season towards the bottom of the table.  I can’t see beyond a home win and a good possibility of a few goals.

 

 

Thanks for reading and good luck to everyone !!

Mercenary or just human

Mercenary
adj.
1. Motivated solely by a desire for monetary or material gain.


The word mercenary has become a common term in modern sport, mainly used by fans to describe players shortly before or after they move clubs.  The word has also become common place in many sporting articles in the last decade and it is no surprise it has coincided with athletes earning potentials rocketing.

The sporting public look back and long for the golden era of athletes representing just one club during their career or playing for their home town.  The image of a young lad playing for the town in which he was born bursting with pride, fulfilling his dream and running himself into the ground with determination lives long in the minds of older sports supporters.  Sadly for many supporters today this is just a dream at the elite level of any sport in any given country.  We now live in a multicultural world where travelling in far easier and quicker than ever before, with this in mind home grown talent is facing far stronger competition.  Gone are the days where a teenager faced with competition from other children of a similar age from their county.  In the modern world they now face challenges from the whole world, due to major sporting clubs having scouting networks setup in all four corners of the world.

So with this in mind we now find are local clubs are now blessed with players from all around the world, something many supporters could only of dreamt of in the early nineties.  Sadly the modern supporter feels that some foreign players do not care or carry the same emotional tie with their beloved club.  This is then coupled with a slight bias that home grown talent offer more loyalty and will offer more determination when results are going against their club.

At the beginning of the nineties the average salary of a footballer in the English top division was approx just over one thousand pounds a week.  Now some twenty three years later it is reported the average salary is now thirty two thousand pounds a week.  This shows the incredibly rise in earnings brought about by large television and marketing contracts.  It is this growth in salaries that has now distanced your normally work class supporter from the modern day player.  Few supporters offer any sympathy or understanding to a person who earns more in one week than the average working person earns in a year.  

The real angst most supporters have with players is caused by their perceived lack of loyalty to their club.  In football the transfer window comes around twice a year and this then opens the opportunities for players to move clubs and also boost their earning potential.  Sadly one of the major impacts the transfer window system has on football is the tight timescale available for these transfers to happen.  With this is mind it then forces players to take drastic actions in a attempt to push through any move they wish to make.  It is these attempts to force a club to sell a player whom this wish to keep that causes the most irritation.  Players who then refuse to play or result to using the media to make their position at the club uncomfortable has become common place.

This believed lack of loyalty or offering less commitment than the supporters has brought about the common use of the term mercenary.  However sometimes it may well be worth looking at this situation from another view point.  What would we do if we were in a similar situation in our normal everyday life? we all have to earn a living and in that way professional athletes are no different.  Now imagine you were offered the opportunity to work for one of your employers competitors with the added incentive of earning an extra twenty percent.  Now you may feel that you enjoy your current place of work and the people you work with.  But you would then also imagine what you could use that extra income for and believe you will make new friendships should you move there.  In all honesty most people would wish to accept the offer of a increased salary.  Now some will state quite rightly that athletes are well rewarded for the endeavours and that they may well never live to spend the vast fortunes they will accrue.  So they do not really require an extra ten thousand pounds a week.  This may well also be true but just the same as many supporters they are also looking to offer financial security for the families in the future.  If you then add to this that they have a playing career of approx thirteen to fourteen years you can also understand the desire to maximise their earnings potential during this short period.  With all this in mind I believe we can now possibly understand why they wish to make these moves happen.  Sadly the methods they adopt to make them happen we cannot accept or wish to understand.  Strangely though when supporters find themselves in a reverse situation, where a player from another team adopts these methods in an attempt to join their club this is accepted and very rarely complained about.

So as the media and public love to declare athletes are greedy and driven by money and success, but in all honesty so are the vast majority of the human population.


“When morality comes up against profit, it is seldom that profit loses.” 
― Shirley Chisholm