Where have the goals gone?

Last week the blog tested my predictive model for the first time, it proved to be very hit & miss.  This maybe related to the model being based on historical data and the premier league so far this season has seen far more low scoring matches than in previous years.  Hopefully the premier league now will return to its high tempo goal scoring self.

NORWICH v ASTON VILLA

The early kick off shows two teams with indifferent form in the league so far, both have had positive and negative results.  These two teams have young explosive attacking options and attempt to play in a passing style.  Last season Norwich struggled for goals and there has been a mild improvement in this area. Whilst Villa struggled in defence and they are still sadly leaking goals again this season. Looking at this match these teams have seen three or more goals scored in approx 90% of their recent matches. So I’m siding with goals in this match the actual match outcome is very close maybe slightly favouring Norwich.

LIVERPOOL v SOUTHAMPTON

Liverpool dropped points for the first time this season on Monday against Swansea and they will be looking to take all three points at home against a Southampton team struggling to find the net so far this season.  Southampton have struggled for goals but have been relatively resilient in defence.  Again this is another match between to teams that pass and control the ball and could be a match that starts very slowly. This match could be far closer than anticipated with both teams recent respective matches seeing less than three goals scored.  I will be siding with a low scoring home win but strangely a draw wouldn’t overly surprise me.

NEWCASTLE v HULL

Newcastle will hope their victory at Villa Park last week will kick start their season.  In truth they have struggled at both ends of the pitch until last weekend.  They now face a Hull team that have managed to grind their way to a few early season points.  Last week they drew against Cardiff in a match they would have desperately wanted to take three points from.  This match could well be a tight nervy affair, but with last weeks result in mind I will side with Newcastle to gain a narrow victory.

WEST BROM v SUNDERLAND

Last weekend West Brom came back from the dead with an injury time goal to take a share of the points at Craven Cottage.  West Brom have struggled so far this season and find themselves in the wrong end of the league table.  However this weekend they face a team that are in real decline.  Sunderland have been poor so far this season and that coupled with decisions not going their way find themselves and Mr Di Canio under pressure.  West Brom are without a victory in their last five home matches whilst Sunderland have only one victory in their last five on the road.  This might not be the most pretty match over the weekend and both teams lack confidence in attack.  How this game pans out will depend mainly on the timing of the first goal, I’m siding with West Brom to get the result and relieve some pressure on Steve Clarke.

WEST HAM v EVERTON

West Ham gained a point at Southampton thanks mainly down to their goalkeeper who produced three great saves.  West Ham since the turn of the year have showed a good defensive record especially away from home.  In truth they have needed this improvement because they are still struggling to score goals.  The ongoing injury to Andy Carroll must be a major concern for big Sam.  Everton gained a vital three points at home against Chelsea.  In truth Chelsea dominated the match especially in the second half but did not create to many clear cut chances.  Everton have been impressive at times but have failed to convert their chances.  Everton are without a win in their last five away matches whilst West Ham have only lost once in their last five at home.  I’m siding with West Ham to take something from the match in what will be a very close contest.

CHELSEA v FULHAM

The late kick off is a classic London derby between arch rivals Chelsea and Fulham.  Jose Mourinho will have been bitterly disappointed to come away from Merseyside last week without a point.  With that in mind taking all three points in this match is even more vital.  Fulham have been more impressive in attack this year but have shown a major defensive weakness.  I still believe they lack players with a real work ethic in the centre of midfield.  After their poor result in midweek then Jose will need to take the points in this one.  Strangely the head to head shows the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge have been a draw.  But I’m siding with the home side to take the points and also a high probability of goals.

ARSENAL v STOKE

Arsenal have turned in some impressive displays so far this season and they now face a Stoke team coming off the back of a home draw against Manchester City.  Arsenal with the addition of Ozil looked very dangerous in attack and that coupled with their defence which improved dramatically through last season will be feeling confident of pushing the title favourites closer this season.  Stoke impressed against Manchester City and if they had taken their chances could well of taken all three points.  In truth Stoke have gone about their business quietly and have achieved a good start to the season.  Stoke always boasted a good defence and if Mark Hughes can improve their goal scoring ability could well achieve a successful league postion.  Stoke have a strong recent away record and a good defensive record as well.  But they face a Arsenal team full of confidence and playing well, I cannot see beyond a home victory and a few goals for the home side as well.

CRYSTAL PALACE v SWANSEA

Palace lost last weekend at Old Trafford but in truth it did not turn out to be the mauling some had anticipated.  They showed good defensive organisation and solidity against a few strong Manchester United attack.  Swansea have now started to find their form in the premier league.  After a victory at the Hawthorns and a draw at home against Liverpool they then backed this up with a victory in Valencia.  There are some promising signs coming from their attacking partnership of Michu and Bony as well.  Much will depend how heavily Swansea rotate after the heavy schedule from last week.  Even with this in mind I still believe Swansea can come away from London with something but I believe they may have to accept a draw.

CARDIFF v TOTTENHAM

Cardiff claimed another point last weekend and appear to be grinding out results so far this season.  Their home record has been excellent and that is what I suggested would need to happen if they are to survive.  They face a Tottenham team that has just started to gel and find impress.  The added benefit of real strength in depth gives Tottenham the opportunity to rotate their team and offer opponents various differing challenges.  Tottenham have a strong away record and a record for goals on their travels as well.  Despite their recent defeat in the derby match I believe Tottenham will have to much attacking power for Cardiff.  I’m opting for an away win and a few goals as well.

MAN CITY v MAN UTD

The first Manchester derby of the year and the first for both of these managers.  This fixture seems to have increased intensity over the last fews seasons.  I’m sure this match will be no different with both managers desperately for both the points and local bragging rights.  Both teams had success in Europe this week and will feel confident going into the match.  City have been their usual dominating selves at home but it is the away record that has cause for concern.  Whilst United have have failed to deliver in their matches against top drawer opposition so far.  They appear to lack tempo and this slow approach play is making it easy for teams to filter back and stifle their threats.  Man City have had a outstanding record at home over recent seasons and I struggle to see United taking all three points. In fact if you look at their last five away from home there is just the one victory.  The most common result is a draw but I do believe they will have to play well to gain the draw.  Overall I’m siding with a home victory and also a high chance of both teams finding the net. 

Thanks for reading and good luck punters !!