Home Comforts

After last weeks venture into the fa cup this week we return to the familiarity of the league.  Saturday sees some tough tests for relegation threatened teams and also some close contests between teams close to each other in the league.

FULHAM v STOKE CITY

The early kick off sees two teams separated by four points face each other at Craven Cottage.  Recent weeks has seen a slight improvement in form for Fulham but it currently stands at won two, drawn two and lost two in their last six.  Their goals record during this period is close to scoring and conceding one goal per match at home.  Fulham made several loan signings in January but currently Frimpong is the only player to have regularly made the starting lineup.  Stoke City come into this game in recent poor form with four defeats,one draw and one win in their last six.  And looking closer at their away record it stands at three defeats in their last three matches.  The problems for Stoke are clearly visible with averaging less than one goal per match and conceding one and half goals per match.  Early in the season their defence were keeping clean sheets and this enabled them to collect points but now this is declining their frailty in attack is being highlighted.  Stoke have failed to score in half of their away matches this season and this is amongst the worst in the premier league.  Their historical record at the Cottage stands at four defeats in their last five and less than half of these matches saw over two goals scored.  The match result may be close to call but Fulham will come away with something from the match.  Don't expect this match to be goal laden and it may well be most of the action comes in the second half.

KEY PLAYER: Dimitar Berbatov

ARSENAL v ASTON VILLA

After the week Arsene Wenger has just had to endure the home match against Aston Villa could be just what his team wanted.  But in truth Villa have improved recently and on their travels have scored goals and gained points.  If this Villa team can keep this match tight and turn the pressure on to the hosts this could be a very difficult afternoon for the Gunners.  Looking at Arsenal recently they have won three, lost two and drawn one.  During this run they have averaged just over one goal per game at home whilst conceding one goal per match.  Whilst the visitors have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six.  Of their last six away matches five have seen four or more goals, this Villa team try to play football but sadly at times they try to play it in the wrong areas of the pitch.  If Arsenal can press them high up the pitch they will surely achieve a highly successful afternoon.  Historically four of the last five matches played at the Emirates has seen three or more goals scored and surprisingly Villa have won on two of their last five trips.  My suggestion for this match is goals and a home victory but it could well be closer than anticipated depending on the timing of the first goal.

KEY PLAYER: Santi Cazorla

NORWICH v EVERTON

Norwich have been sucked into a possible relegation fight due to their decline in form, they currently stand at four draws and two defeats in their last six.  Their home form indicates another problem with three draws in their last three at home.  Their main problem is they are still averaging less than one goal per game at home and if they go behind it indicates very little chance of them gaining anything other than a draw at best.  They have endeavoured to assist this by tightening their defence and five of their last six at home have seen two or less goals scored.  They face a Everton team who have lost just one of their last six but like most of their season have drawn to many matches recently.  This is identified by their goals record of scoring and conceding one goal per match recently.  Just one clean sheet in their last ten away from home shows why they haven't been collecting maximum points.  Everton will gain some confidence coming into this match knowing they have only lost just once at Carrow Road in their last five trips.  But following both teams trends the draw has been the most common outcome between these sides.  My thoughts for this match is that Everton will come away with something from this match.

KEY PLAYER: Marouane Fellaini

QPR v MANCHESTER UNITED

QPR know they must start to turn recent draws into wins if they are to stand any chance of staying in the premier league.  Having drawn three, lost two and won just one of their last six matches it does not give much confidence of the Hoops avoiding the drop.  Sadly their home form is more depressing reading with four draws and two defeats in their last six.  They are still struggling for goals and recently at home have averaged less than half a goal per match.  When this is compared to their record of conceding over one and a half goals per match you can soon see why they are suffering.  With this is mind they could not be facing worse opposition in a Manchester United side averaging over just under two goals per match away from home recently.  One glimmer of hope for the hosts could well be the resting of players by United ahead of the home tie against Real Madrid in midweek.  Sadly QPR have not won any of the last five matches played between them and Manchester United at Loftus Road.  I believe the best they can hope is to scrape a draw in this match if United do rotate heavily and this match should contain at least a couple of goals. 

KEY PLAYER: Chris Samba

READING v WIGAN ATHLETIC

This is a match between two teams at the bottom end of the league table but if you look at the form table Wigan are rock bottom while Reading stand proudly sixth just behind Manchester City.  This up turn in form for Reading is in no small part down to their recent late goals scored and fight backs.  Their team has shown real character of late to keep them in close contact with fellow strugglers and in with a chance of survival.  In this recent turn of form they have averaged two goals per match and the slight reduction in averaged goals conceded down to one goal per match.  At home they have won four and drawn two of their last six and this home record is what will be the bedrock of any hopes of staying up.  The visitors have lost three, drawn two and won just one of their last six on the road.  Goal scoring has not been a problem for Wigan away from home their issues have been the inability to keep goals out.  Scoring over a goal and a half away from home is a record of a top half premier league team sadly conceding just under two goals per match is strong relegation form.  This match should contain goals and I will be torn between a draw and a home win in this match.

KEY PLAYER: Adam Le Fondre

WEST BROM v SUNDERLAND

After all of their recent on and off field problems Steve Clarke must have been delighted to have taken three points at Anfield.  To be fair they were under the cosh for most of the match and Ben Foster performed brilliantly but such results can be season turning.  The Baggies have been in a real form slump prior to this match with four defeats in their last six league matches.  They have lost three of their last six at home and are now averaging less than one goal per match whilst conceding the same.  The visitors seem to have suffered the same problem all season with goal scoring being their main issue.  They have failed to score in half of their recent matches but are still leaking on average one goal per match.  On the road recently Sunderland matches seem to be slightly different with five of their last six matches seeing three or more goals scored.  Looking at historical records Sunderland have lost three of their last five away at the Hawthorns and failed to score in these three matches as well.  My thoughts are this match should well see a couple of goals and hopefully a positive result with West Brom.

KEY PLAYER:  Romelu Lukaku

Thanks for reading and good luck !!!