TOTTENHAM v NEWCASTLE
When these teams first met this season and
Newcastle recorded a victory at St.James Park many predicted another successful
season for Newcastle and also many voiced their doubts over Villas Boas and his
managerial ability. Now in the return fixture we see the stark contrast in how
these clubs seasons have panned out. Newcastle have been hit with injuries to
key players and a drop in confidence resulting in them languishing in the lower
half of the table. Whilst Spurs have gained in confidence and momentum and now
find themselves pushing for a top four finish. One major concern for Spurs will
be the fitness of Defoe and whether they will be left to rue not purchasing
another striker in the January window. Looking at Tottenham's recent form they
have suffered only one defeat in their last five this coming away to Leeds in
the cup. Their home form stands at an impressive three wins and two draws in
the last five. Their opponents form is slightly more difficult to assess with
them winning their last two matches after their recent purchases in the transfer
window. Prior to these matches they lost five of their last six but they now
seem to have fresh impetus and are looking towards mid table safety. Both of
theses teams have averaged nearly one and half goals per match respectively and
are both set out with attacking formations. But Spurs have found goal scoring
slightly more difficult at home compared to their excellent goals return from
away fixtures. The historical records shows the home side of won three of the
last five and in the last three meetings Newcastle have failed to score a goal.
Overall I would be backing a home win but it may well be close with the news Defoe will be out for three weeks.
Expectation of over 2 goals: 50%
CHELSEA v WIGAN
Chelsea come into this match as the model of
inconsistency in the league, unlike Chelsea they are conceding sloppy
goals and dropping points from winning positions. All of this is heightened by
the frosty relationship between Rafa Benitez and the clubs supporters. Several
times of late if Chelsea have struggled early in home matches the fans have turned and
made a very hostile atmosphere for the home team to play in. Their opponents
normally start their bid for safety at this time of the season collecting vital
victories at unexpected locations. This season though I believe it may well be
a step to far for a Wigan team that are struggling for form both home and away.
The home teams recent record stands at just one win in their last five with
three draws and one defeat. Also note that four of their last five matches
have seen three of more goals scored. Their home form also shows inconsistency
with two wins, two defeats and one draw in the last five. Wigan's recent record
looks slightly more health but is boosted by recent cup results. They have lost
just once in their last five and away from home they are undefeated in their
last five away. Looking at Wigan's goals record six of their last seven away
matches have seen three or more goals. The trend for this match shows Chelsea
have recorded victories in four of the last five matches at Stamford bridge but
Wigan have scored a goal in three of their last five trips. Overall I believe
this inconsistent Chelsea side should have just enough to take the points in this
match and this match should contain some goals.
Expectation of over 2 goals:58%
NORWICH v
FULHAM
Norwich have seen a mild improvement in form in
recent matches being able to grind out results against Tottenham at home and a
bore draw away at QPR. Their main problem this season has been goals and they
tried hard to rectify this problem in the transfer window with the purchase of
Becchio but sadly they missed out on Gary Hooper from Celtic. Their opponents
Fulham are another team that have had their problems in the league this season.
In recent weeks they have gained some valuable points none more so than the home
victory over West Ham. Fulham are notorious for having a poor away form in the
premier league. Norwich are without a win in their last five drawing three and
losing two. Sadly their home form is of even more concern with three defeats
and two draws in their last five. During these five matches they have failed to
score in three of these matches and that is of really concern for Chris
Hughton. Fulham have won just two and lost three of their last five which is
mirrored in their last five away as well. Fulham boast a strong record at
Norwich being undefeated on their last four visits. This match could well be a
close contest with a draw probably the most likely outcome.
Expectation of over 2 goals:54%
STOKE v READING
Stoke have really been in poor form compared to
their usual standards in the league. Stoke are another team that struggles on
the road but are normally very strong at home. But recently their home form has
been poor with a defeat to Chelsea and drawing against Wigan after taking a two
nil lead. Early on in the season Andre Villas Boas stated Stoke had the best
defence in the league, this has been a kiss of death as now Stoke have struggled
to find a clean sheet in the last month. They face a Reading team that really
have turned the corner in recent weeks. After struggling to keep goals out and
throwing away vital points with late goals they really have tightened up at the
back. Gaining vital points against Newcastle, Chelsea & Sunderland really
does show how they are now a much tougher prospect to face. Reading have a
strong record at Stoke with only one defeat in their last five trips their and
winning four matches. Stokes only win in their last five matches came in the
cup against Crystal Palace. The most noticeable sign of their poor form comes
when you look at the home record of just one win in their last five. But under
further examination their only defeats at home during this period came against
Chelsea and Manchester City so this does make for slightly better reading.
Reading are currently unbeaten in their last five and winning four of these
matches. They have won their last two away matches against Crawley and
Newcastle but prior to this their away form has been poor. My thoughts on this
match are for a narrow Stoke victory and a good possibility of both teams
finding the net.
Expectation of over 2 goals:46%
SUNDERLAND v
ARSENAL
Sunderland come into the match after a transfer
window that they would have hoped would of been slightly busier. The have
managed to add some attacking strength with the capture of Danny Graham and this
must have been the most concerning area for Martin O’Neill with his team really
struggling for goals at stages of the season. Arsenal come into the match in
good form with the only recent defeat coming at home against Manchester City.
Arsene Wenger had yet another quiet transfer window with the only real signing
being Monreal . Their away form has been inconsistent this season with some good
away victories and some low scoring draws and this will be the area they will
look to improve on as they push for a top four finish. They know they must
improve as they face strong competition from arch rivals Tottenham. The home
teams form currently stands at two wins, two defeats and one draw in the last
five overall and is mirrored in their last five at home. They have averaged
just over one goal per game in their last five and have conceded at roughly the
same rate. In comparison they face an Arsenal team that has been averaging over
two goals per match in their last five. Their only defeat coming against
Chelsea at Stamford bridge. The historical records for this clash show a draw
as the most common results but also that four of the last five meetings have
seen two or more goals scored. My overall thought for this match is siding
towards a score draw and a couple of goals.
Expectation of over 2 goals:38%
SWANSEA v QPR
Swansea suffered their first real blip in recent
weeks losing at West Ham but I did believe they may well struggle against their
physical power and style of play. This weekend they return to the comfort of
home and will be looking to return to winning ways ahead of the Capital One cup
final. Many teams this season have struggled against the passing and movement
of Swansea and sadly I have my doubts whether QPR will be equipped to deal with
the threats offered. QPR invested heavily in new players but currently have not
seen a heavy points return for their investment. Draws have been the most
common recent result for QPR and they will not be enough if they are to avoid
relegation. Looking at these two teams form coming into the match they both
have had their share of draws recently. Swansea have started to lose recent
form with now only one win in their last five. This could be down to
the distraction of the cup final. Two defeats and two draws in their last five
and only one match seeing over one goal scored highlights Swansea's recent problem. At home
they have also only won one of their last five drawing the remaining four and
both teams have also scored in four of these five matches. QPR also have only
one win in their last five and have drawn three. In recent away matches they
have scored in four of the last five and again only two of these matches has
seen over two goals scored. My thoughts are a home victory but it might be a
low scoring tight affair.
Expectation of over 2 goals:58%
SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER
CITY
Despite changing manager Southampton have managed
to continue their recent form with draws against Everton & Wigan and
narrowly losing away to Manchester United. Many have been impressed by the
brand of football being played by the saints and also by some of their players
who are new to the premier league. Jason Puncheon & Rickie Lambert have
both adapted well to the new league and have offered good goal returns.
Manchester City are in the most crucial period of their season so far, having
drawn away to QPR and then the same result at home against Liverpool they are now
adrift of Manchester United with matches running out. With that in mind a draw
against Southampton probably will not be good enough so there is more chance of
Roberto Mancini setting out his side with a more open attacking intent. The
saints have only suffered one defeat in their last five and have managed to
score in four of their last five. Their form at home is inconsistent with
positive results against the high rank sides in the league but defeats against
lower opposition. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last five and have only
suffered one defeat in their last five on the road. Their goals average away
from home has started to dip recently and they go into this match under pressure
to take three points. Their record against Southampton is strong with two wins
and two draws in their last five trips but I fear they may well have to accept a
point on this trip. Even though the stats don't lead towards it I would anticipate goals in this match only due to the fact
City will have to push hard for the three points and this may well leave spaces at the
back for Southampton to exploit.
Expectation of over 2 goals:38%
Thanks for
reading and good luck !!!
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